What’s next for Tommy?

The resignations have slowed, but not stopped: President Bush’s cabinet will look a lot different over the next four years than it has over the last four.

Some posts – State, Attorney General, Education – have already been filled. Others haven’t. Still others may come open in the very near future.

Among that last group is the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Tommy Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin, has served as HHS Secretary for the past four years, and the word around both Washington and Madison is: he isn’t looking for another four.

He hasn’t come right out and said so himself, of course. Nor has he said what he would like to do next.

Whither Tommy? Lots of speculation there. Will he run for Governor again? Maybe for U.S. Senate? Join private industry? Become a lobbyist?

How about this: he’ll stay in Bush’s cabinet, just as head of a different agency.

Here’s how the Wisconsin State Journal put it recently (emphasis mine):

While Wisconsin Republicans are keen to have Thompson run for office again, either for governor or for the U.S. Senate, Thompson could choose to stay in the Cabinet, most likely as head of the Department of Homeland Security, according to Washington pundits.

That’s right, Homeland Security.

And why not? As head of HHS, he frequently seemed more involved in homeland security than the actual secretary of that office. Remember the anthrax scare? At Homeland Security, Tommy would have a front-line role in defending the nation from terrorism.

And then, before you know it, 2007 will be here, and the political parties will start whittling down their rosters for the 2008 presidential election.

Why do I mention that, you ask?

In presidential politics, common wisdom says governors have the advantage. They’re chief executives already: big picture people, who know you can’t run a company by handling every little detail yourself. That’s important, in campaigning and governing both.

Tommy was an immensely popular governor for 14 years, who spearheaded immensely popular and innovative reforms, like welfare reform, and school choice.

Governors have one glaring weakness in presidential politics: no foreign policy experience.

Well, heck, Tommy just got back from Tanzania, where he was working on the African AIDS epidemic. Put him at Homeland Security, and his foreign policy resume will only get better.

Now, I’m not calling this a done deal – not by any stretch. There are a lot of other better-known potential contenders for 2008.

Plus, there’s an awful lot that can happen over the next four years. One of the most interesting theories has Vice President Cheney resigning before his current term is up, and replacing him with the heir apparent.

From a political standpoint, this is a good idea. Assuming Cheney really doesn’t want to try for the Presidency himself, holding onto the Veep slot until 2008 takes a big advantage away from the Republicans – the advantage of incumbency. A Vice President running for The Promotion is usually the 800-pound gorilla in any given election. Cheney knows this.

So, Cheney resigns due to health concerns.(his heart), and is replaced by... the most common answer is Condoleeza Rice, thereby setting up a potential Condi vs. Hillary cage match in ’08.

Possible, interesting, tantalizing, but unlikely. Rice may be an incredibly capable person, but she’s never run for office before. As hot as her spotlight burns now, it’s much, much hotter when you’re the candidate. She hasn’t been vetted. She should be – at least as a Veep candidate herself – before trying for the big chair.

Who else? There’s more than enough names to choose from. Colin Powell has the same disadvantage as Rice, plus he’s squishy-soft on social issues. Ditto Rudy Guiliani, and besides, I’m hoping one of those two New Yorkers tries to unseat Hillary in 2006.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist? Colorado Governor Bill Owens? Arizona Senator John McCain?

Maybe, maybe, and maybe. All are attractive candidates, but no more so than Wisconsin’s own Tommy Thompson, who, I might point out, comes from a swing state – a political advantage none of those others can claim.

Wild speculation? You betcha. But Thompson didn’t become Wisconsin’s most successful and most powerful governor in history by lacking in political skill – or in ambition.

In another week or so, we’ll know who’s going to Homeland Security. If it’s Tommy, well, I’ll keep my eye on 2008.