When the fallout from Election 2008 begins next November 5, we might find ourselves looking quite intently at tomorrow.
Tomorrow, Saturday, September 29, is the deadline for Florida to move their presidential primary from January 29 back into February.
That’s the deadline…or else.
The Florida Democratic Party will hold its presidential primary on Jan. 29, despite being told by the Democratic National Committee that doing so will result in the state losing its 210 delegates to the 2008 nominating convention in Denver, a Florida Democratic official tells CNN.The candidates agreed to that “under pressure from the four states permitted to hold contests in January,” Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Republican candidates are under no such restrictions.
In addition to losing all of its delegates, the decision also means that most of the Democratic presidential candidates will no longer campaign in Florida.
For Democrat candidates, this is the rock and the hard place. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Anger the early primary states, or anger one of the biggest collections of electoral votes in the country.
Doing well in the early primaries is vital to a presidential campaign. Doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire attracts volunteers, supporters, money. More importantly, doing poorly scares them away.
You’ve got to do well – if not win outright – in at least one of those two states, if not both. And if you do well in only one, you’d better do really well in South Carolina. Most people won’t put their effort into a candidate who has no chance. Not even Ed Garvey.
So candidates do not want to anger the state and local Democratic Parties in those states. If those states are “pressuring” them not to campaign in Florida, the candidates have to listen – and they apparently have.
On the other hand, Florida is one of the most important states in Presidential election politics. Only three states – California, Texas, and New York – have more electoral votes. And the last two elections have been close: Bush won it by 5 percentage points in 2004, but by only a hundredth of a point in 2000.
So you don’t want to get the old folks riled up, either. It’s not good politics.
All is not completely lost. Sure, the national party says Florida will get no delegates to the Democratic National Convention, but the eventual nominee could – probably should – insist that they be seated.
The nominee will have her cake and eat it, too. She’ll go along with the early states’ demands, do well, win the nomination, then become a hero to the Democrat machine in Florida.
And then hope the non-aligned moderate middle has forgiven her for the earlier snub.
Still, it’s a spot. At a time when any misstep or bad sound bite could tip the scales toward or, more likely, away from any given candidate, an internecine squabble like this is a distraction the candidates neither need nor want.
It’s a few extra landmines dropped into the field of presidential politics.
In 2004, a British reporter called for a worldwide vote on the American presidency, because having the whole world vote as one body has worked out so well every other time its been done.
I’m reminded of that now, except instead of Europeans with neither claim nor right clamoring for a role, it’s actual U.S. citizens and states, with their legal, traditional, historic and moral claims to an equal voice in their government.
Complaining about the early states’ “undue influence” is getting to be boring. A cliché.
Still, that some of us have more oomph than others in such an important decision rankles. It doesn’t sit right. It doesn’t mesh with the “one man, one vote” ideal.
That’s why states are pushing their primaries up. To let their citizens’ votes count for more.
Which is why those early states, if they are pressuring candidates to shun Florida, are being snobbish, selfish, arrogant and wrong.
I don’t know the solution to the primary problem. I don’t know how we get to any of the solutions others have suggested.
I do know that favoring one state over another in this way is on the way out. The only surprise is that it’s taken so long.
