McCain's Pick

Who’s he gonna pick? Who should he pick?

Who, as a Veep candidate, gives John McCain the best chance to win?

Conventional election wisdom says: first you secure your political base, then you go for the middle. For McCain this would seem to mean: tell conservatives you’re sorry and want them back, and say it like you mean it.

And do it by picking a solidly conservative Veep.

That’s the conventional wisdom, and far be it from me to buck it. It is, after all, both conventional and wise. Thus the name.

Still, I see another path for McCain, and I won’t be at all surprised if he takes it.

He could pick Joe Lieberman.

Let’s get the “secure the conservative base” argument out of the way first. There’s only so much McCain can do, there, and even if he does, it still won’t satisfy everybody. Elements of that base will not vote for McCain. Will. Not. No matter what McCain does.

On the other hand, other elements of the base will vote for McCain, regardless of his semi-conservative past.

Sure, you’ve got your Ron Paul contingent – that, I expect, will be quite small by November, but it’ll be there. You’ve got your Bob Barr variable – the once-Republican now-Libertarian candidate who openly bragged that he would – and probably will – take votes from McCain in battleground states.

Granted, more conservatives will cast third-party protest votes if McCain bucks them again and picks a non-conservative Veep. The question is: can McCain gain more votes than he’ll lose?

Conversely, can McCain win by courting conservative votes?

My answers: I think maybe so, and I think maybe not.

Unsubstantiated speculation, coming up.

Right or wrong, Democrats are trying to portray McCain as Bush’s third term. And when I say “right or wrong,” I mean wrong. Other than their positions on the war, their history with airplanes, and the letter “R,” there’s no obvious connection between the two.

Still, the strategy may work. The great pendulum of American politics – which hit its apex early in November of 2006 – is still swinging Democrat. No, 2008 won’t be a repeat of 2006, but Republicans – McCain included – are the underdogs.

So: McCain wants to show that he’s not just the same-old, same-old. Not just Bush the Younger, Episode III. He has to show some separation between himself and politics-as-usual in DC.

What better way to do that – what better way to wrest the slogan “a new kind of politics” away from Obama?

By picking Lieberman, McCain could honestly point to seriousness on foreign policy, on tort reform, on free trade. Lieberman helped break the judicial nominee stalemate in 2005. And he survived a serious challenge from within his own Party over his stance on the war.

At the same time, Lieberman’s decidedly liberal positions on abortion, gay marriage, affirmative action, and gun ownership could assure waffling center-lefties that they’re not signing onto the party of God, Guns, and Gays by voting McCain.

Plus, look, the Democrats say they want to change politics-as-usual. Obama talks the talk. We’re walking the walk.

I dunno. Sounds like that could make up for the disgruntled conservative non-vote, and more.

And remember: many – if not most – conservatives will still vote McCain. They’ll do it for the war; for the anti-pork; for the judicial nominations. At the least, they’ll do it to prevent President Obama, whose values are universally contrary to conservativism.

The really interesting question about a Lieberman vice presidency comes either four or eight years from now: following President Obama’s first term, or President McCain’s second, or the first term of whoever defeats President McCain in '12.

At that point, Lieberman will have run for the vice presidency twice – once as a Democrat, once as a Republican. He may have won the office with the Republican Party.

Four or eight years from now, after zero, four, or eight years as Vice President, what does Lieberman do? As a member of what Party? Awfully hard to pass up the chance.

But awfully hard to switch back to the Democrats, too, and if he did, it might be awfully hard for Republicans to oppose him.

That's a whole lot of speculation, of course. I'm not predicting, and I'm not endorsing. But, boy, it would be interesting.